Prediction markets have moved away from bets on inexpensive crude as Brent crude crossed the $100 mark. The shift is visible in two prominent platforms: Myriad and Polymarket.
Myriad: $120 Side Overtakes $55
On Myriad, the $120 side overtook the $55 side at the beginning of September. This change indicates that participants on that platform now see a higher price outcome as more likely than a lower one.
Polymarket: 59% Odds for WTI at $100
Meanwhile, Polymarket places the probability of WTI reaching $100 this month at 59%. That figure reflects the platform’s current assessment of the likelihood that West Texas Intermediate will hit that level within the month.
What the Shift Means
Together, these two data points show that prediction market participants are no longer favoring cheap oil. The move on Myriad and the odds on Polymarket both point in the same direction: expectations have adjusted upward as Brent passed $100.
